Sunday, August 23, 2015

2015-07 Interest Rate Trends

In July, the state-sector and private-sector interest rates showed divergent trends, for the benefit of the private sector.

The Shanghai Interbank Offer Rate (Shibor) ended July at 1.47%, which was a 43 basis point increase from May.  However, that is still 108 basis points lower than the trailing average for July.  The cost of financing for state-owned banks is increasing, despite the amount of new money that is being created by the central bank.

By comparison, the Wenzhou Private Finance Index ended July at 18.08%, the lowest rate in the series.  It may be that as private lending is liberalized more financial capital is being allocated to the private sector.  Or, it may be that financial repression by the central bank and the collapse in equities and real estate prices has led an unsustainable amount of funds seeking yield into riskier assets.  Probably both.